© 2001 by Oxford University Press
Journal of the National Cancer Institute Monographs, No. 30, 27-35,
2001
© 2001 Oxford University Press
Prognostic and Predictive Role of Proliferation Indices in Adjuvant Therapy of Breast Cancer
Affiliation of authors: Department of Experimental Oncology, Istituto Nazionale per lo Studio e la Cura dei Tumori, Milan, Italy.
Correspondence to: Maria Grazia Daidone, Ph.D., Department of Experimental Oncology, Unit 10, Istituto Nazionale per lo Studio e la Cura dei Tumori, Via Venezian, 1, 20133 Milan, Italy (e-mail: daidone{at}istitutotumori.mi.it).
| ABSTRACT |
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In breast cancer, proliferative activity represents one of the biologic processes most thoroughly investigated for its association with tumor progression. In addition to the mitotic activity component of pathologic grading systems, several proliferation indices have provided independent information on prognosis and response to specific treatments in large retrospective studies. Recently, results from treatment protocols prospectively planned to test the clinical utility of proliferative activity have indicated that tumor cell proliferation markers identify two subsets among patients with lymph node-negative cancers: 1) those at a very low risk of relapse and 2) those who will benefit from regimens including antimetabolites. Future efforts should compare the prognostic accuracy of different proliferation markers, confirm preliminary evidence of a relationship between proliferation and response to specific systemic treatments, and standardize assay techniques to facilitate their transfer to general oncology practice.
| BACKGROUND |
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Tumor-proliferative activity represents one of the cellular functions most thoroughly investigated in breast cancer for its association with neoplastic progression and metastatic potential. Several approaches, in addition to the measure of mitotic activity (volume/corrected mitotic index, mitotic activity index, and mitotic index) used by all pathologic grading systems (1), have been used by pathologists and cell biologists to determine and quantify the whole proliferative fraction or the discrete fractions of cells in specific cell cycle phases on consecutive series of clinical tumors (2,3). Initially, quantitative measurement of cells in the S phase of the cell cycle involved the evaluation of the fraction of tumor cells actively incorporating DNA precursors (labeled pyrimidine bases, such as [3H]thymidine, or halogenated analogues, such as bromodeoxyuridine or iododeoxyuridine) (4). Newer technologies include the evaluation by flow cytometry or image cytometry of cells with a DNA-synthesizing content (5) and the quantitation of the entire fraction of proliferating cells (i.e., the growth fraction) for the availability of antibodies raised against the nuclear antigen Ki-67 expressed by cycling cells (Ki-67/MIB-1, Ki-S2, and Ki-S5) (6,7). Such approaches, which are applied on different types of specimens (viable, frozen, or paraffin-embedded tissues), use different methods of evaluation (autoradiography, immunocytochemistry, or cytometry). Each of these methods has inherent advantages and disadvantages, including different feasibility rates, which for some indices ([3H]thymidine-labeling or bromodeoxyuridine-labeling indices [TLI or BrdULI, respectively]) appear to depend strictly on the availability of fresh tumor tissue, whereas for others (flow cytometric S-phase fraction [SPF]) depend on data analysis techniques and interpretation as well. Moreover, the different measures of proliferation do not always correlate well with one another in terms of biologic or clinical significance when analyzed on the same case series. In fact, a moderate or poor concordance has been observed not only between proliferation indices detecting cells in different cell cycle phases (i.e., SPF and Ki-67 or MIB-1) but also between indices evaluating the fraction of cells in the same cell cycle phase (i.e., SPF and TLI). In addition, proliferation markers showed slightly different sensitivity and specificity rates when related to clinical outcome (832) (Table 1
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| PROGNOSTIC ROLE OF PROLIFERATION INDICES |
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A computerized literature search was performed using PubMed. "Breast cancer" and the name of each of the proliferation indices were selected as keywords. All available articles published as late as July 2000 were included. Original English articles were analyzed and selected for inclusion when they reported data on the relation between proliferation indices and clinical outcome, evaluated via univariate and/or multivariate analyses on independent case series of at least 100 patients with a minimum follow-up of 4 years. A total of 120 papers were identified in which results were reported from studies for which tumor specimens were available for determining proliferation indices without any a priori study design or prospective definition of specimen collection procedures at the time of therapeutic trial planning [studies providing level of evidence (LOE) III according to the Tumor Marker Grading Utility System proposed by Hayes et al. (33)]. About one third of those 120 papers dealt with studies carried out on patients with lymph node-negative breast cancers or with tumors at any stage, but for which only localregional treatment was given. This group of studies analyzed the prognostic role of cell proliferation, i.e., its relation with disease-, event-, or relapse-free survival, in the absence of adjuvant systemic treatment. Regardless of the proliferative marker investigated and the criteria used to classify tumors as slowly or rapidly proliferating (mean, median, or continuous values), high proliferation indices were associated in univariate analyses with a high probability of relapse and death. This finding generally persisted in multivariate analyses in which features related to the patient (age and menopausal status), the disease (tumor size, regional lymph node status, and histologic/cytologic findings), or the biology of the tumor (markers associated with differentiation, hormone responsiveness, neoangiogenesis, and genomic alterations) were also considered (1315,18,19,23,25,3463) (Table 2
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The integration of proliferation indices with other clinical and pathobiologic factors has provided a better assessment of risk than the consideration of single variables. TLI was evaluated in a large, single-institution series of lymph node-negative breast cancer patients (38) in the presence of traditional prognostic factors (age, tumor size, estrogen receptor [ER], and progesterone receptor [PgR]). TLI, considered as a continuous variable and categorized by tree-structured regression analysis, was able to define subsets at different risk for localregional relapse (in association with patient age) and distant metastasis (in association with tumor size and patient age). Cell proliferation alone was an independent prognostic discriminant for intermediate-size tumors (12 cm). Conversely, TLI was not predictive for the occurrence of contralateral cancers. Such findings, originally observed in 1800 cases with a median follow-up of 8 years (38), were recently updated at a follow-up of 10 years in 2250 cases. For localregional relapse, a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.8 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.3 to 2.4) was found for patients aged less than or equal to 55 years with high TLI tumors versus those with low TLI tumors or who were aged more than 55 years (two-sided P value referred to Wald chi square = .0001). For distant metastasis, the HR was 1.9 (95% CI = 1.5 to 2.5; two-sided P value referred to Wald chi square = .0001) for patients with a tumor size greater than 2 cm and aged 4665 years or with tumor size 12 cm and high TLI and 3.0 (95% CI = 2.3 to 4.0; two-sided P value referred to Wald chi square = .0001) for patients with a tumor size greater than 2 cm and aged less than or equal to 45 or 5665 years when these subgroups were compared with patients at low risk (tumor size
1 cm or tumor size 12 cm and low TLI). Taken together, findings from phase I and II exploratory studies (65) indicate that proliferation indices are independent predictors of clinical outcome. However, similar to other pathobiologic markers such as tumor size and ER status, the predictive value of proliferation indices tends to decrease with longer follow-up in most series (66,67).
| CONTRIBUTION OF PROLIFERATION INDICES TO THE IDENTIFICATION OF SUBSETS OF PATIENTS AT A VERY LOW RISK OF RELAPSE |
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Recently, the determination of proliferation indices, along with other biomarkers, has been prospectively planned as part of adjuvant and neoadjuvant treatment protocols. Although not all studies have been specifically designed to test the predictivity of tumor markers with adequate statistical power, it is likely that they will improve the quality and accuracy of available information. In addition, results are now becoming available from a few valuable prospective studies specifically designed to test marker utility. These studies will provide definitive evaluation of the clinical utility of proliferation indices.
The ability of cell proliferation to identify, in association with traditionally accepted prognostic factors, subgroups at different risk of localregional or distant relapse has now been confirmed in an LOE II study performed in conjunction with the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project Protocol B-14 study. Patients with lymph node-negative, ER-positive tumors were randomly assigned to receive adjuvant therapy with tamoxifen or placebo (66). SPF, in association with relatively few other prognostic factors (patient age, PgR status, and tumor size), identified a broad spectrum of risk categories in a subset of more than 800 women in this trial. In fact, the estimated 10-year disease-free survival probability was quite low (<30%) for patients younger than 35 years of age with large, PgR-negative tumors and a very high SPF. Conversely, patients 50 years of age or older with PgR-positive, 1-cm tumors and a negligible proliferative activity had a greater than 80% disease-free survival probability, and intermediate survival values were found for the other combinations of clinical and pathobiologic features. Such a score could provide an accurate assessment of individual patient prognosis and might suggest limiting aggressive adjuvant therapy to only selected women with lymph node-negative, ER-positive tumors.
To test the hypothesis that proliferation markers can discriminate among lymph node-negative patients at different levels of risk, the U.S. Intergroup performed a prospective, randomized clinical trial (LOE I) (68). From 1989 to 1993, 3899 patients with lymph node-negative breast cancer were randomly assigned as follows: Women whose tumors were too small for biochemical ER/PgR assay were classified at a very low risk and received only localregional treatment. Those with tumors larger than 2 cm or with negative steroid hormone receptors were considered at a high risk, and systemic adjuvant treatment was administered. The "uncertain" risk subset, those patients with tumors less than or equal to 2 cm with positive steroid hormone receptors, had an S-phase fraction measured to discriminate between low and high risk. The 5-year clinical outcome of the subset initially at "uncertain" risk but later classified at low risk because of a low SPF score was superimposable to that of patients initially at low risk because of very small tumor size. The finding validated the utility of cell proliferation and has been independently confirmed in about 700 lymph node-negative tumors in a prospective investigation by Jones et al. (69), in which Ki-67/MIB-1 was considered in addition to SPF.
The prognostic refinement of the intermediate-risk subset by proliferation markers was also studied by our group at the Istituto Nazionale per lo Studio e la Cura dei Tumori, Milan, Italy. We investigated whether TLI provides an additive contribution to breast cancer-scoring systems already validated and/or accepted for routine use, based on different clinical and morphopathobiologic features of proven prognostic utility. In lymph node-negative breast cancer, in particular, we tested TLI within risk categories defined according to criteria (based on patient age, tumor size, histologic grade, and ER and PgR status) proposed in the 1998 St. Gallen's International Consensus Conference on the Treatment of Primary Breast Cancer (70). Our study was carried out on a series of 549 women who had primary, resectable invasive breast cancer. All of them were histologically lymph node negative with no radiologic or clinical evidence of distant metastasis, synchronous bilateral tumor, or concomitant second primary neoplasm and underwent surgery at the Istituto Nazionale per lo Studio e la Cura dei Tumori of Milan during the period from January 1991 to December 1994 (median follow-up, 5 years). The case series (Table 3
) was consecutive with respect to TLI determined at the time of diagnosis (71) but independent of the series we previously published on TLI (8,36,38). Patients were subjected to mastectomy (132 [24%] cases) or quadrantectomy plus radiotherapy (417 [76%] cases), and all of them underwent axillary lymph node dissection (median number of examined lymph nodes = 18). None of the women received systemic postoperative therapy until new disease manifestation was documented, and all of them underwent follow-up examination at the outpatient clinic of the Istituto Nazionale per lo Studio e la Cura dei Tumori, as previously described (38). Primary treatment failure was defined as the first documented evidence of local recurrence or regional axillary relapse (six events), distant metastasis (53 events), contralateral breast cancer (18 events), or a combination of these events. Steroid receptors were evaluated by the dextran-coated charcoal technique (38), and histologic grade was determined according to the procedures of Elston and Ellis (72).
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Patient age, tumor size, histologic grade, and TLI (divided into three classes on the basis of its frequency distribution in relapsed cases), but not ER or PgR, provided prognostic information for 5-year relapse (Table 4
1 cm in patients older than 35 years [2.7% of the cases]). Relapse rates of 29% and 14%, respectively, were observed for the subsets at high risk (patients <35 years old or with tumors >2 cm, or ER-negative and/or PgR-negative, or grade 3 [60.1% of the cases]) or at intermediate risk (patients not included in the two previous categories, i.e., those with tumors 12 cm in size, ER-positive and/or PgR-positive, and of histologic grade 1 or 2 [37.2% of the cases]). A statistically significant association (chi square test; two-sided P = .014) was observed between the St. Gallen categories and TLI. The fraction of slowly proliferating tumors decreased from the minimal-low-risk to the high-risk subset (from 60% to 40% of the cases), with a parallel increase in the fraction of rapidly proliferating tumors (from 13% to 30% of the cases). The overall concordance among the three St. Gallen or TLI classes was limited to only about one third of the cases. TLI provided no prognostic additive information within the high-risk subset (5-year relapse probability for high versus lowintermediate TLI, 29% and 28%, respectively), in which at least one of five unfavorable factors was already present. Conversely, in the intermediate-risk group, TLI was able to separate further the patients into two subsets with different relapse probabilities (5-year relapse for the high [30%] versus the low-intermediate [9%] TLI subsets; HR = 3.4, 95% CI = 1.4 to 8.3; two-sided P value referred to Wald chi square = .0076) (Fig. 2
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| CLINICAL UTILITY OF PROLIFERATION INDICES IN IDENTIFYING HIGH-RISK LYMPH NODE-NEGATIVE PATIENTS WHO NEED AGGRESSIVE TREATMENT |
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In the last decade, an additional aim of prospective studies using cell kinetic features was to investigate whether lymph node-negative breast cancer patients defined as high risk on the basis of tumor cell proliferation could benefit from adjuvant polychemotherapy. Three phase III randomized trials using TLI (73,74) or the mitotic activity index (75) have been activated in Europe. Patients were randomly assigned to receive adjuvant chemotherapy (e.g., cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, and 5-fluorouracil [CMF] or 5-fluorouracil, doxorubicin, and cyclophosphamide) versus no systemic therapy. These studies measured tumor cell proliferation and instituted quality-control programs for analytical and preanalytical phases of cell kinetic determinations (71,7679).
Results are available from the multicenter Italian study by Amadori et al. (73). Patients were eligible for the study if they were younger than 70 years of age, underwent radical or conservative resection plus radiotherapy, had lymph node-negative tumors histologically assessed, and had TLI and ER determinations available. A total of 278 patients with high (>3%) TLI were accrued and randomly assigned to receive CMF or no further treatment. Disease-free survival probability curves showed a 5-year benefit in CMF-treated patients versus untreated patients (83% versus 72%), with a reduction in localregional (6.4% versus 2.9%) and distant relapses (21.3% versus 12.4%) and in the annual risk of relapse (approximately 40%), even when adjusted for age, tumor size, type of surgery, and PgR content. The benefit of CMF treatment was mostly evident for cases at very high risk, i.e., with TLI values greater than 6.8% (corresponding to the third tertile of TLI frequency distribution).
The results support the use of cell proliferation to select patients with lymph node-negative tumors at a high risk of recurrence. The finding of a greater benefit from antimetabolite-based regimens in tumors with the highest proliferation is in keeping with the evidence from studies measuring cell proliferation as part of prospective randomized clinical trials comparing systemic treatment with observation or radiotherapy in either lymph node-positive or high-risk, lymph node-negative patients (8082).
| PROLIFERATION INDICES AND RESPONSE TO SYSTEMIC ADJUVANT TREATMENTS |
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There has been a renewed emphasis in the search for biologic predictive factors, i.e., markers able to identify patients who are more or less likely to benefit from specific therapies. Compared with prognostic factors, however, this field of research is more difficult to investigate, since the ideal study should include the prospective evaluation of the marker within the context of a randomized clinical study designed to compare systemic therapies with localregional therapies. Proliferative activity represents a biomarker that may be both prognostic and predictive. As for most putative biologic predictors, present data mainly acquired from LOE III studies are insufficient to draw firm conclusions regarding the predictive role of proliferation indices in choosing either endocrine therapy or chemotherapy and are only suggestive of relations that should be further investigated and analyzed.
As regards predictors of response to chemotherapy, emerging evidence from adjuvant and neoadjuvant studies (83,84) generally indicates a benefit of polychemotherapy including S-phase-specific drugs for patients with rapidly proliferating tumors, even though such a finding is not unequivocal. In fact, in companion studies of prospective, randomized clinical trials comparing systemic treatment with observation or radiotherapy, an advantage from CMF on long-term outcome was present only in rapidly proliferating tumors (80) or in rapidly and in slowly proliferating tumors (85), but the benefit was greater in the former (81,82).
Up to now, few studies have investigated whether cell kinetics provides information on the efficacy of different treatment schedules. In an ancillary study analyzing 70% of the cases entered in a randomized treatment protocol aimed at comparing alternating and sequential regimens of doxorubicin and CMF in breast cancer patients who had more than three positive axillary lymph nodes, the benefit of sequential administration was mainly evident in patients with tumors with low to intermediate proliferation rates (86). The data could be explained by a partial synchronization of cells in the G2M phase of the cell cycle following the initial administration of doxorubicin at a high dose intensity and by a subsequent presentation during the CMF cycles of a large number of cells sensitive to S-phase-specific drugs.
As regards prediction of response to endocrine therapy, evidence from adjuvant and neoadjuvant studies generally indicates a greater benefit for patients with slowly proliferating tumors, either within ER-positive subsets or in the presence of information provided by PgR (87,88), although contrasting results are present in the literature (89). All of the data have been obtained from retrospective clinical analyses, and prospective studies are needed.
| CONCLUSIONS |
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Proliferation indices can be markers of clinical utility. In fact, in lymph node-negative breast cancers, the usefulness of cell proliferation in identifying subsets at a very low risk of relapse has been assessed in large retrospective studies and validated in prospective studies (68,69), and the benefit from chemotherapy regimens including antimetabolites in treating rapidly proliferating tumors has been assessed in a phase III prospective study (73). Further effort should be made to define the relative prognostic accuracy of the different proliferation markers within prospective clinical trials and to confirm the preliminary evidence of a relationship between proliferation and response to specific systemic treatments.
In addition to clinicobiologic effectiveness and usefulness, laboratory quality-control programs should be considered to promote the transferability of these measurements from the research laboratories to general practice (90). Effort should be devoted to standardize methodologies and interpretation criteria to improve reliability, accuracy, and reproducibility of assay results within and among the different laboratories. Moreover, links should be created among the different quality-control programs so as to share common methodologies so that clinical trial results can be extrapolated to routine practice.
| NOTES |
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Supported in part by grants from the Italian Health Ministry and the Italian Research Council (CNR).
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35 years old; 15 cases); dotted line: intermediate-risk subset (including ER-positive and/or PgR-positive, grade 12, 1- to 2-cm tumors from patients 
