© The Author 2006. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org.
Chapter 12: A Stochastic Simulation Model of U.S. Breast Cancer Mortality Trends From 1975 to 2000
Affiliations of authors: Departments of Radiology (SKP, BMS, PS, JR) and Management Science and Engineering (PS, PG), Stanford University, Stanford, CA
Correspondence to: Sylvia K. Plevritis, PhD, Department of Radiology, School of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford CA 94305 (e-mail: sylvia.plevritis{at}stanford.edu).
Background: We present a simulation model that predicts U.S. breast cancer mortality trends from 1975 to 2000 and quantifies the impact of screening mammography and adjuvant therapy on these trends. This model was developed within the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Network (CISNET) consortium. Method: A Monte Carlo simulation is developed to generate the life history of individual breast cancer patients by using CISNET base case inputs that describe the secular trend in breast cancer risk, dissemination patterns for screening mammography and adjuvant treatment, and death from causes other than breast cancer. The model generates the patient's age, tumor size and stage at detection, mode of detection, age at death, and cause of death (breast cancer versus other) based in part on assumptions on the natural history of breast cancer. Outcomes from multiple birth cohorts are summarized in terms of breast cancer mortality rates by calendar year. Result: Predicted breast cancer mortality rates follow the general shape of U.S. breast cancer mortality rates from 1975 to 1995 but level off after 1995 as opposed to following an observed decline. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the impact adjuvant treatment may be underestimated given the lack of data on temporal variation in treatment efficacy. Conclusion: We developed a simulation model that uses CISNET base case inputs and closely, but not exactly, reproduces U.S. breast cancer mortality rates. Screening mammography and adjuvant therapy are shown to have both contributed to a decline in U.S. breast cancer mortality.
CiteULike 
Connotea 
Del.icio.us What's this?
This article has been cited by other articles:
|
|
 |
|
  J. S. Mandelblatt, K. A. Cronin, S. Bailey, D. A. Berry, H. J. de Koning, G. Draisma, H. Huang, S. J. Lee, M. Munsell, S. K. Plevritis, et al. Effects of Mammography Screening Under Different Screening Schedules: Model Estimates of Potential Benefits and Harms Ann Intern Med, November 17, 2009; 151(10): 738 - 747. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 E. J. Feuer Chapter 1: Modeling the Impact of Adjuvant Therapy and Screening Mammography on U.S. Breast Cancer Mortality Between 1975 and 2000: Introduction to the Problem J Natl Cancer Inst Monographs, October 1, 2006; 2006(36): 2 - 6. [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
L. D. Clarke, S. K. Plevritis, R. Boer, K. A. Cronin, and E. J. Feuer Chapter 13: A Comparative Review of CISNET Breast Models Used To Analyze U.S. Breast Cancer Incidence and Mortality Trends J Natl Cancer Inst Monographs, October 1, 2006; 2006(36): 96 - 105. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
J. D. F. Habbema, S. Y. G. L. Tan, and K. A. Cronin Chapter 14: Impact of Mammography on U.S. Breast Cancer Mortality, 1975-2000: Are Intermediate Outcome Measures Informative? J Natl Cancer Inst Monographs, October 1, 2006; 2006(36): 105 - 111. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
K. A. Cronin, E. J. Feuer, L. D. Clarke, and S. K. Plevritis Chapter 15: Impact of Adjuvant Therapy and Mammography on U.S. Mortality From 1975 to 2000: Comparison of Mortality Results From the CISNET Breast Cancer Base Case Analysis J Natl Cancer Inst Monographs, October 1, 2006; 2006(36): 112 - 121. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|